This post looks at TrendForce’s latest findings on the global foundry market. TSMC’s pulling even further ahead as AI chip demand keeps picking up, while Samsung’s share keeps slipping.
We’ll dig into revenue and market-share shifts, process headaches, and possible catalysts like HBM4. Memory-price swings could also mess with fab utilization over the next few months.
Market leadership and revenue dynamics in the foundry sector
TrendForce reported a record $169.5 billion in combined revenue for the top 10 foundries, up 26.3% from last year. TSMC led with $122.9 billion in sales, a 36.1% jump year-over-year, giving it a 69.9% market share—up 5.5 points.
Samsung’s foundry revenue dropped 3.9% to $12.63 billion, putting its share at 7.2%—down 2.2 points. The gap between TSMC and Samsung got even wider, moving from 55 percentage points in 2024 to 62.7 points last year, which really highlights TSMC’s dominance in this AI-driven moment.
These shifts show how the semiconductor world is tilting toward AI workloads and hyperscale demand. Scale, yield, and access to the newest process tech matter more than ever.
With AI chip production ramping up, customers want suppliers who can deliver big volumes, reliably, and on the latest nodes. No surprise there, right?
TSMC’s dominance and drivers
TSMC’s 36.1% growth came from steady demand for its leading-edge processes and a favorable mix. The company’s scale means higher fab utilization and stronger pricing power, which keeps it at the center of AI accelerators, data centers, and high-performance computing.
Samsung’s performance and challenges
Samsung’s foundry business hit some rough patches, with revenue sliding to about $12.6 billion and its share dipping to 7.2%. Yield on the 3-nanometer node has been a big problem—estimated around 20%—and that’s pushed customers away, dragging down DS (device solutions) revenue to 130.1 trillion won for the year.
On the bright side, Samsung’s HBM logic-dies unit grew 6.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 as high-bandwidth memory demand picked up late in 2024. Some analysts think early mass production of HBM4 could give Samsung’s foundry business a shot in the arm if memory markets stay strong, but honestly, it really depends on where overall demand goes.
TrendForce pointed out that rising memory prices could slow down demand for finished goods, making semiconductor orders and fab utilization a bit of a question mark in the second half of the year. If customers start delaying investments or tweaking orders due to price swings, even the strongest foundries could feel it.
Technology, yield, and the path forward
It’s not just about market share—process maturity and yield shape long-term growth. Samsung’s struggles with 3nm yields show how production bottlenecks at the cutting edge can shake customer confidence and hurt revenue.
TSMC keeps using its size and process edge to meet rising demand. Samsung’s bets on HBM products and early HBM4 production might help if memory demand stays solid. But the industry’s still walking a tightrope: deliver high-performance chips, keep fab utilization up, and ride out price swings.
Key factors to watch
Here’s what could move the needle for foundries in the near term:
- Where AI chip demand goes and how it affects leading-edge node usage
- How fast HBM4 ramps and what happens with data-center memory cycles
- Whether memory prices spike or dip, and how that shapes device demand and fab planning
- Geopolitical and supply-chain twists that affect capex and supplier choices
Outlook for 2025 and strategic implications
TSMC’s market leadership still looks solid. Scale, process sophistication, and a strong AI-driven demand tailwind keep them out in front.
Samsung’s path forward is complicated. HBM memory innovations and possible HBM4 growth give them some momentum, but process yields and cyclical pressure on its memory-focused ecosystem hold them back.
If you’re a processor maker, foundry, or downstream customer, it’s smart to diversify suppliers. Careful capacity planning and keeping an eye on memory pricing and demand shifts also seem essential.
The AI era keeps shaking up chip fabrication. The foundry market’s power balance will depend on how fast nodes scale, yields settle, and high-bandwidth memory architectures mature for hyperscale needs.
Here is the source article for this story: TSMC Widens Market Share Lead Over Samsung Electronics