ON Semiconductor (NYSE: ON) sits in Scottsdale and leads the pack in intelligent sensing and power semiconductors. It’s about to report its fiscal Q1 2026 results, and investors are eyeing how the company will grow in a chip market that’s seeing more consolidation.
This post breaks down what Wall Street expects, how ON’s been performing lately, and what the big headline numbers might mean for the stock’s path in 2026 and after. Let’s see what’s on the table.
What to expect from ON Semiconductor in Q1 2026
Analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $0.62, which is up about 12.7% from $0.55 last year. That consensus points to steady momentum in ON’s mixed-signal and power device business, with the company getting a boost from its wide range of end markets.
Looking at the full year, fiscal 2026 consensus EPS lands at $2.92. That’s roughly a 24.3% jump from $2.35 in fiscal 2025.
For fiscal 2027, analysts see a strong $4.19 EPS, which would be another estimated 43.5% increase. That’s a bold call, but it shows expectations for ON to keep expanding margins and growing volumes across its product lineup.
Over the past 52 weeks, ON’s shares have surged 74.7%. Compare that to the S&P 500’s 25.1% and the XLK technology ETF’s 39.4%, and it’s clear ON’s got momentum.
Investors seem confident in ON’s exposure to big secular trends like automotive electrification, industrial automation, and consumer electronics. That’s probably not a coincidence.
In the most recent quarter (Q4), ON posted an adjusted EPS of $0.64, beating expectations of $0.62. Revenue came in at $1.5 billion, matching forecasts.
Management expects Q1 revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion. They’re guiding for adjusted EPS in the range of $0.56 to $0.66.
That setup hints at a steady, maybe even accelerating, earnings pace as demand firms up in key end markets.
Analyst mood and price targets
Analyst sentiment? It’s still pretty constructive. Out of 33 analysts covering ON, 10 say “Strong Buy,” 2 go with “Moderate Buy,” and 21 sit at “Hold.”
That adds up to a Moderate Buy consensus. Feels like the Street sees a real growth runway here, but they want to see ON keep delivering through the cycles.
On valuation, shares trade above the mean price target of $68.03. The Street’s high target is $80, which would mean about 16.8% upside from where things stand now.
That kind of upside lines up with hopes for margin discipline, a strong product mix, and steady demand in analog ICs and discrete semiconductors. Whether ON hits those marks? We’ll see.
Why ON Semiconductor stands out in the chip market
ON’s product lineup covers analog ICs, integrated circuits, and a wide range of discrete semiconductors in all sorts of packages.
This mix lets ON handle market swings and tap into sensor-heavy tech, electric vehicles, and power management needs in many industries.
The company cross-sells between segments, so it doesn’t lean on just one market. That approach helps earnings stay steadier than you might expect in such a volatile sector.
ON has built up a reputation for beating or at least meeting quarterly expectations. Out of the last four quarters, it beat three times and only missed once.
That track record gives their guidance a bit more weight. Maybe that’s why some investors feel comfortable holding ON for several quarters, even if the chip market can get rough.
- Q1 2026 consensus: EPS $0.62; revenue around $1.4–$1.5 billion
- Fiscal 2026 guidance: EPS around $2.92; growth trajectory intact
- Analyst setup: Mostly Hold with a subset of Strong/Moderate Buy ratings
- Valuation touchpoints: Mean target ≈ $68.03; high target ≈ $80
The author held no positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
Here is the source article for this story: Earnings Preview: What to Expect From ON Semiconductor’s Report