Omdia’s latest forecast takes a fresh look at 2026 semiconductor revenue, pointing to dramatic growth fueled by memory markets—think DRAM and NAND. Supply shortages linger, prices keep rising, and AI infrastructure keeps expanding. The report explores what this means for data centers, consumer tech, and the wider industry, but also throws in a warning about macro risks and capacity headaches.
Drivers behind the 2026 semiconductor landscape
Omdia’s revised forecast says semiconductor revenues will surge in 2026, with a 62.7% jump expected. This isn’t just a blip—unprecedented DRAM and NAND demand is driving it, all while supply stays tight.
The DRAM market could nearly double in value, and NAND might even quadruple compared to 2025. The industry’s pivot to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) stands out, with higher prices and lower volumes giving suppliers extra pricing muscle at the component level.
Demand is anchored by robust enterprise and data-center activity and a big server refresh cycle. Add in hyperscaler capex, and you’ve got a recipe for persistent supply tension.
It’s unlikely that meaningful relief from shortages will come before 2027. Producers are shifting to higher-value systems using next-gen silicon and better connectivity. That means average selling prices will keep climbing, even if volume growth stays modest.
Memory and infrastructure: the core growth engines
Memory markets will be the core growth engines for semiconductors in 2026. Strength in computing and data storage is set to push revenue up by about 90% year-on-year, topping $700 billion.
This surge comes from memory-intensive applications and strong pricing power in memory ICs. Higher ASPs ripple through the supply chain.
The technology mix is shifting fast. As AI, analytics, and giant databases push workloads harder, memory turns into a real bottleneck.
Suppliers are answering with bigger memory, faster speeds, and integrated security features. These upgrades support higher prices, even if unit growth is a bit sluggish.
Impact on devices: data centers, AI, and consumer electronics
Enterprise demand, especially for data centers, continues to dominate. The ongoing server refresh cycle and steady hyperscaler capex keep the market tight, making supply relief slow to arrive.
The shift to next-generation silicon and advanced connectivity is pulling demand toward high-value systems, especially those loaded with memory and AI accelerators.
For consumers, higher memory prices will push up bill-of-materials costs, even if smartphone shipments don’t really move. But growth isn’t stuck in the old device lanes.
New flagship smartphones—especially foldables and AI-enabled models—plus more wearables and smartwatches, should keep consumer electronics revenue rising. All in all, memory pricing looks set to stay a key lever for total semiconductor market value.
Risks and caveats for the forecast
The trajectory looks promising, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Several caveats stand in the way of unbridled optimism.
Right now, rising average selling prices drive most of the uplift. Unit volumes haven’t seen the same kind of boom. That makes me wonder: can suppliers really scale up capacity fast enough? And will every AI-driven investment actually pay off?
- Capacity expansion challenges could slow things down. New fabs or fabrication capacity might hit delays that bottleneck supply growth.
- Memory prices can swing wildly. If demand suddenly drops, we might even run into oversupply issues.
- There are still supply constraints for key components in AI accelerators and networking gear. It’s a bit of a scramble.
- Macro headwinds—tariffs, higher energy costs, and, of course, geopolitical tensions—could chill both enterprise IT and consumer demand.
- Building out AI infrastructure takes a ton of capital. That level of investment might mess with project ROI and market timing.
Here is the source article for this story: Omdia raises 2026 semiconductor forecast to 62.7% as AI drives global memory crunch